Pop Base’s 2024 Grammy predictions

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It is once again that time of year. Grammy season is here, and so are the debates, predictions and fan wars ignited by the biggest music event of the year. This year is packed with some of music’s biggest powerhouses, and some newcomers as well. The Grammys is probably the toughest award show to predict in entertainment solely due to the fact that there is really no indicator of who will win what, and who will walk away empty-handed. This year is no different, and what makes it even harder to predict is the fact that in recent years, the Recording Academy has been more focused on building a spectacle and rebuilding their reputation, making it difficult to accurately pinpoint which route they will take. A lot of that is to be taken into account when you’re taking a shot at predicting music’s biggest night as, many times, Grammy politics become the determining factor. As we’ve also seen in recent years, the Grammys have opted to spread the love throughout the night rather than having one artist take them all or, in other words, sweep. This is our attempt at predicting this year’s winners alongside a second prediction, just in case.

Best Pop Solo Performance

Flowers — Miley Cyrus

Paint The Town Red — Doja Cat

What Was I Made For? — Billie Eilish

Vampire — Olivia Rodrigo

Anti-Hero — Taylor Swift

Winner: Flowers by Miley Cyrus

Second prediction: Anti-Hero by Taylor Swift

When Flowers was released to the world last January, it became the first big pop culture moment of the year. Miley Cyrus’ biggest hit to date was practically inescapable at one point or another throughout its monster chart-run and the song, alongside its parent album, Endless Summer Vacation, earned Cyrus her most Grammy recognition to date with six nods. After being overlooked with her more recent projects like Plastic Hearts, this finally feels like the year Cyrus will become a Grammy-winner and we’re willing to bet this is the category that will seal that title for her.

Anti-Hero served as the first single off Midnights, but it also served as Swift’s biggest pop radio hit in years. Coming off folklore and evermore, this track reminded music listeners that Swift is still a prominent force on pop radio and, along with Midnights, set the stage for one of the most impressive years by any artist in music history. If Flowers doesn’t take it, we think Anti-Hero is the safest second bet.

Best Pop Vocal Album

Chemistry — Kelly Clarkson

Endless Summer Vacation — Miley Cyrus

Subtract — Ed Sheeran

Guts — Olivia Rodrigo

Midnights — Taylor Swift

Winner: Midnights

Second prediction: Guts

Best Pop Vocal Album is probably the easiest category to predict this year because, transparently, there are two real contenders. Olivia Rodrigo’s GUTS or Taylor Swift’s Midnights might as well already be engraved on the trophy, as one of them will take it home. The other three nominees, great as they may be, did not have the presence that these two did. Miley Cyrus’ Endless Summer Vacation could be the exception, but we’re predicting something will likely go to Flowers instead. The question then becomes: which way is the academy leaning? Rodrigo’s sophomore installment or Taylor’s 10th studio album?

We’re predicting Midnights to be the winner here. Upon release it broke nearly every record imaginable and cemented Swift as pop’s dominating force. Such a pivotal moment in the music year will not go easily ignored by the academy, especially in the pop field.

Best New Artist

Gracie Abrams

Fred Again..

Ice Spice

Jelly Roll

Coco Jones

Noah Kahan

Victoria Monét

The War and Treaty

Winner: Victoria Monét

Second prediction: Ice Spice

Victoria Monét, who was once told it was ‘too early in her story’ to perform at a less-prestigious award show, will walk in to the Grammys as the second-most nominated artist of the entire night, and will likely walk out a winner. Following the release of Jaguar’s second installment and her viral hit On My Mama (also up for Record of the Year) Monét has positioned herself as a front-runner in this category. We expect Best New Artist will be hers for the taking.

The other two big names that may have captured voters’ attention here are, of course, Ice Spice and Noah Kahan. Ice Spice had an incredible year, if not evident by her four Grammy nods and her A-list collaborations: Barbie World with Nicki Minaj and Karma with Taylor Swift, both of which are also up for awards throughout the night. It would be unwise to count out a contender like that, so Ice Spice will be our second bet. Noah Kahan has had a more steady rise with his single Stick Season, however, it feels as though he began having more buzz towards the end of the Grammy voting period.

Record of the Year

Worship — Jon Batiste

Not Strong Enough — Boygenius

Flowers — Miley Cyrus

What Was I Made For? — Billie Eilish

On My Mama — Victoria Monét

Vampire — Olivia Rodrigo

Anti-Hero — Taylor Swift

Kill Bill — SZA

Winner: Anti-Hero by Taylor Swift

Second prediction: Flowers by Miley Cyrus

This is where things start to get a bit tricky. Looking at these eight nominees, it’s not difficult to imagine a world where any of them takes it. We know one of them will, so we’re going to go with Anti-Hero. Taylor Swift has never won this award (or Song of the Year for that matter) and this feels like the right time. The lead single off her blockbuster 10th studio album Midnights became one of the year’s defining hits, beyond just pop radio. It surpassed Blank Space as her longest-running #1 hit on the Billboard Hot 100 and became a signature addition to Swift’s undeniable catalog.

On the other hand, we have Flowers by Miley Cyrus which also feels like the Record of the Year. This is Cyrus’ first nomination in this category though and not many win on their first try. If voters feel differently this year, Flowers is a deserving exception — if not obvious by the song’s monster chart-run and streaming records. If Anti-Hero doesn’t triumph here, Cyrus is bound to get her flowers.

Song of the Year

A&W — Lana Del Rey

Anti-Hero — Taylor Swift

Butterfly — Jon Batiste

Dance The Night — Dua Lipa

Flowers — Miley Cyrus

Kill Bill — SZA

Vampire — Olivia Rodrigo

What Was I Made For? — Billie Eilish

Winner: What Was I Made For? by Billie Eilish

Second prediction: Anti-Hero by Taylor Swift

This category’s purpose makes it easier to predict than Record of the Year. The intention of this award is to recognize the best songwriting of the year — and this year has more obvious choices than the former. All of these nominees are here for a reason, but it’s easy to pinpoint which songwriting was lauded more throughout the year. We’re predicting the Oscar-nominated What Was I Made For? by Billie Eilish to take it. When it came to pop culture in 2023, it felt like a lot of it was soundtracked by Barbie and this track was the heart and soul of the phenomenon. It expanded beyond the film and created a movement across social media, not to mention that Eilish is no stranger to the General Field. We’re expecting her to pick up her second Song of the Year win, following 2020’s bad guy.

You can’t talk about music — or pop culture for that matter — in 2023 without Taylor Swift. The juggernaut is seen as one of the generation’s greatest songwriters and that is why it might be surprising to many who find out that she has never won Song of the Year at the Grammys. In fact, this year she broke the record for most nominations in the category (7) by any artist ever, but she is yet to win. After such a monumental year and with a critically-acclaimed song like Anti-Hero, it would not be at all surprising if this were finally the year that Swift wins Song of the Year. The song itself carries a vulnerability and self-loathing aspect that Swift had not shown with her past nominations in the category. Additionally, if Album of the Year doesn’t go to Midnights, the academy might still want to recognize the era in a big way and this might be the perfect way to do it. If What Was I Made For? doesn’t take it, Anti-Hero will.

Album of the Year

World Music Radio — Jon Batiste

The Record — Boygenius

Endless Summer Vacation — Miley Cyrus

Did You Know That There’s A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd — Lana Del Rey

The Age of Pleasure — Janelle Monáe

Guts — Olivia Rodrigo

Midnights — Taylor Swift

SOS — SZA

Winner: SOS by SZA

Second prediction: Midnights by Taylor Swift

Only a couple of the eight nominees seem like obvious choices for Album of the Year and SZA’s SOS is one of them. This album marked the moment that SZA became a superstar and elevated her career both commercially and artistically. There wasn’t a moment on radio that lacked a SZA song all year — ranging from Kill Bill to Nobody Gets Me and Snooze. Her sophomore effort has all the traits of an Album of the Year, and we’re predicting she’ll take the top prize of the night. The history of the Grammys is something hard to ignore, especially when trying to predict the outcome every year, but there’s a more-than-worthy winner here. If SOS wins, it would not only become SZA’s first Album of the Year, but also mark the first time a Black woman wins Album of the Year this century — the first since Lauryn Hill with The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill in 1999.

The thing about this year’s main Grammy prize is that it has some unpredictability attached to it, but then again, it is the Grammys after all. One might look at the nominee list and likely guess the biggest artist of the year will take it with Midnights. But does the Academy want to give Swift a fourth Album of the Year win this soon? Swift’s Midnights was undoubtedly the blockbuster event of the year, along with her Eras Tour, and garnered acclaim all around, if not evident by its 6 nominations — but it doesn’t feel like the safest bet to win. It rightfully earned its place as one of the biggest music moments of the decade so far, but voters might feel it’s too soon to award her a fourth Album of the Year — a win which would have her break the record for most wins in the category by any artist ever (following Fearless, 1989 and folklore). Even though folklore won just three years ago, Midnights should not by any means be counted out. In addition to the album’s undeniable dominance, Taylor Swift’s cultural relevance is also stronger than ever which may very well be a swaying factor for those voters who think it’s too soon for that fourth record-breaking trophy. With its Record and Song of the Year nominee Anti-Hero and its incredible chart feats, it sure seems like a key contender. But even if Midnights doesn’t triumph here, Swift is still poised to become the first artist to win Album of the Year four times at some point. We’re placing Midnights as our second bet for Album of the Year.

Whatever route the Recording Academy takes will have to be seen on Sunday, when thousands tune in to Pop Base for live updates.